2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks, predictions: Model fading Christopher Bell in Federated Auto Parts 400

The 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 will take place at Richmond Raceway on Sunday, and with just three races in the NASCAR regular season, the stakes continue to escalate. There have already been 15 different winners this season, which means Ryan Blaney is the only driver who would qualify for the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs on points. However, Blaney’s spot would disappear if there are any other first-time winners, meaning nearly 20 winless full-time drivers will be pushing hard. The 2022 NASCAR at Richmond green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET.

Blaney is 10-1 in the 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while fellow winless driver Martin Truex Jr. is the 11-2 favorite. Kevin Harvick ended a 65-race winless drought and secured his spot in the NASCAR playoff picture with a win last week and is 15-1 in the 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds. Before scouring the 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Richmond picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. Last week, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Richmond race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Richmond predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he’s a 14-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain and Trackhouse Racing have been the biggest surprises of the 2022 NASCAR season, taking advantage of the parity created by the next-gen car to make themselves a factor nearly every week.

Chastain sits third in the 2022 NASCAR standings and is locked into the NASCAR playoff field with a pair of victories this season. However, Chastain has earned a reputation as a hard-charger regardless of his points status, and after a disappointing 19th-place finish at Richmond earlier this year along with finishes outside the top 20 in his last three races, he’ll be eager to get back to the front. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 starting lineup.

Bell is seventh in the standings and has all but sewn up a spot in this year’s NASCAR playoff picture with a win at New Hampshire. He led 63 laps at Richmond in the spring, but ultimately finished sixth. He’s also finished outside the top 10 in each of his last two starts and with Joe Gibbs Racing likely hoping to push Truex to the front to secure his playoff bid, Bell looks overpriced as second favorite. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Federated Auto Parts 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season

2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds, field

See full NASCAR Michigan picks, best bets, and predictions here

Martin Truex Jr. 11-2
Denny Hamlin 7-1
Christopher Bell 7-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Ross Chastain 14-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Bubba Wallace 15-1
William Byron 15-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Tyler Reddick 17-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Chase Briscoe 25-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Erik Jones 50-1
Austin Cindric 75-1
Brad Keselowski 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Noah Gragson 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse 300-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Landon Cassill 2500-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1